Saturday 22 Aug, 17:30 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Brentford
56Index64Attack47Defense
DDLWL
51%BRE WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Tottenham Hotspur
44Index42Attack48Defense
WLDWW
BRENTFORD 51%DRAW 25%SPURS 24%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals λ
1.9 · 1.3
Why
- Brentford attack index 64 meets Tottenham Hotspur defense index 48 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 51% vs 24% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Brentford — projected scorers
Spurs — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.
Score probabilities
| BRE ↓ · TOT → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 4% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 7% | 11% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Show the math
Home attack / defense0.243 / 0.061
Away attack / defense0.020 / 0.073
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375
lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.