The engine's fifteen
A legal FPL squad chosen by optimizing this week's expected points from the same engine that prices every match here — each player's goal and assist rates, his club's clean-sheet probability from the match score grid, his expected minutes — under the real rules: £100.0m, two keepers, five defenders, five midfielders, three forwards, max three per club, legal starting eleven, captain doubled. Two builds, one toggle: the model's pure read, and the starters-nailed overlay for week-one certainty about rotation. Copy either, or argue with the drivers — the squad's actual score is graded here after the gameweek, like everything else we publish.
Why each pick
| Player | Pos | Price | Exp pts | Goal λ | Assist λ | Clean sheet | Exp mins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lammens | GK | £5.0m | 3.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 37% | 90' |
| Gabriel (V) | DEF | £8.0m | 5.8 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 57% | 80' |
| Virgil | DEF | £6.5m | 4.7 | 0.32 | 0.02 | 18% | 90' |
| Castagne | DEF | £4.5m | 4.7 | 0.12 | 0.38 | 20% | 90' |
| B.Fernandes (C) | MID | £12.0m | 7.4 | 0.29 | 1.20 | 37% | 90' |
| E.Le Fée | MID | £6.0m | 5.6 | 0.11 | 0.90 | 33% | 90' |
| Mbeumo | MID | £8.0m | 5.5 | 0.54 | 0.15 | 37% | 65' |
| O.Dango | MID | £6.5m | 5.2 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 29% | 76' |
| Hinshelwood | MID | £6.0m | 5.2 | 0.47 | 0.20 | 27% | 86' |
| Osula | FWD | £6.0m | 5.1 | 0.72 | 0.09 | 18% | 75' |
| Watkins | FWD | £8.0m | 4.9 | 0.61 | 0.15 | 20% | 76' |
| Roefs (bench GK) | GK | £5.0m | 3.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33% | 90' |
| Calafiori (bench 2) | DEF | £5.5m | 4.7 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 57% | 52' |
| Hume (bench 3) | DEF | £4.5m | 4.4 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 33% | 85' |
| Thiago (bench 1) | FWD | £8.0m | 4.9 | 0.66 | 0.07 | 29% | 90' |
Close calls — if you'd rather
Not modeled (and said so): bonus points, saves, defensive-contribution points, cards, price changes. A £14m star can lose to two £7m starters on points-per-pound — that is the optimizer being honest, not forgetful; the premiums sit in the alternatives for the captaincy-faithful. Probabilities, never advice — full record at /model.