Friday 28 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Crystal Palace
49Index54Attack42Defense
LDLDL
49%MCI WIN
1–2
Likeliest MCI win · 9%
Manchester City
82Index83Attack76Defense
LDWWD
CRYSTAL PALACE 27%DRAW 25%MAN CITY 49%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
65%
Expected goals λ
1.4 · 1.9
Why
- Manchester City attack index 83 meets Crystal Palace defense index 42 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 27% vs 49% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
CRY 35 drawn16 MCI
2025/26MCI3–0CRY2026-05-13
2025/26CRY0–3MCI2025-12-14
2024/25MCI5–2CRY2025-04-12
2024/25CRY2–2MCI2024-12-07
2023/24CRY2–4MCI2024-04-06
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Man City — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
CRY or draw51%
Draw or MCI73%
CRY or MCIno draw76%
Draw no bet
CRYstake returned on a draw35%
MCI65%
Clean sheets
CRY clean sheet15%
MCI clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CRY↓ MCI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CRY goals, columns MCI. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-08-18) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public at /model.